Averaging over the period we have reliable data, which of the separate subregions, i.e. Beaufort Sea, etc. provides the best "bellwether" predictions for ice maximums for the Arctic region in general?
That's a data analysis question I have not investigated. Since the maximum Arctic-wide extent is fairly tightly constrained to sometime in the first three weeks of March it would be a matter of identifying the largest anomalies in the time leading up to March.
Thanks Rick. It's an interesting question in that if (and admittedly that's a big "if") there were a statistically significant bellwether region then the "why this region?" becomes the next item. I suspect we don't have enough data as yet and that the data we do have shows a drift of the average reflecting 3 or 4 drivers... All this well above my amateur pay grade!
I subscribe to your newsletter because I feel everyone who lives north of 30° north lat. should keep their eyes on the arctic..(and thus should subscribe to your Substack) ..the sea ice mass and age, and the water temps in particular. Canaries in a coal.mine. We might want to keep especially vigilant for arctic water/ice/atmospheric anomalies, since our first sign that things are going south in a hurry will be concatenated anomalies. For example, what's happening to the polar jetstream in terms of length and area covered..is it retreating north?
Averaging over the period we have reliable data, which of the separate subregions, i.e. Beaufort Sea, etc. provides the best "bellwether" predictions for ice maximums for the Arctic region in general?
That's a data analysis question I have not investigated. Since the maximum Arctic-wide extent is fairly tightly constrained to sometime in the first three weeks of March it would be a matter of identifying the largest anomalies in the time leading up to March.
Thanks Rick. It's an interesting question in that if (and admittedly that's a big "if") there were a statistically significant bellwether region then the "why this region?" becomes the next item. I suspect we don't have enough data as yet and that the data we do have shows a drift of the average reflecting 3 or 4 drivers... All this well above my amateur pay grade!
I subscribe to your newsletter because I feel everyone who lives north of 30° north lat. should keep their eyes on the arctic..(and thus should subscribe to your Substack) ..the sea ice mass and age, and the water temps in particular. Canaries in a coal.mine. We might want to keep especially vigilant for arctic water/ice/atmospheric anomalies, since our first sign that things are going south in a hurry will be concatenated anomalies. For example, what's happening to the polar jetstream in terms of length and area covered..is it retreating north?