Given current trend lines and extrapolating out, how long do we have before the Arctic is all open water in the height of summer? Very rough estimates are fine.
Depends on the details. When will the Arctic wide sea ice extent have a day with extent at zero? Not not for a very long time: remnant ice will persist along/between the north Canadian islands for many decades. The usual climate projection definition of ice free is extent less than 1 million km². That would be less than ⅓ of the 2012 minimum, which is the current lowest. A number of papers/reports suggest the first year that occurs could be as soon as the 2023s or as late as 2050s, but then it's entirely possible it could be years before the second occurrence. When "ice free" in late summer becomes the usual outcome depends on human actions (or inactions) but not likely before second half of the 21st century.
I very much appreciate your responding to a very difficult forecast question. Let's hope it never happens, but I'm not optimistic we won't see open water by the late 2040s, if not before.
Given current trend lines and extrapolating out, how long do we have before the Arctic is all open water in the height of summer? Very rough estimates are fine.
Depends on the details. When will the Arctic wide sea ice extent have a day with extent at zero? Not not for a very long time: remnant ice will persist along/between the north Canadian islands for many decades. The usual climate projection definition of ice free is extent less than 1 million km². That would be less than ⅓ of the 2012 minimum, which is the current lowest. A number of papers/reports suggest the first year that occurs could be as soon as the 2023s or as late as 2050s, but then it's entirely possible it could be years before the second occurrence. When "ice free" in late summer becomes the usual outcome depends on human actions (or inactions) but not likely before second half of the 21st century.
I very much appreciate your responding to a very difficult forecast question. Let's hope it never happens, but I'm not optimistic we won't see open water by the late 2040s, if not before.