March 2024 was the 10th consecutive month with the global average temperature setting a new record high. However, for the Arctic, 2017 remains the mildest March on record and this year, while far warmer than the historical average, was not so extreme.
Arctic Temperatures
For the Arctic as a whole (land and sea poleward of 60°N), the March 2024 average temperature was +1.0°C above the 1991-2020 normal. This was slightly cooler than the March 2023 average temperature and overall 13th warmest since 1950. As shown in Fig. 1, there were a few areas where this was a top three warmest March, most notably in the area in Siberia north of the Sea of Okhotsk. This is the same general area in which 2023-24 was a top three coldest winter season. Other especially mild areas included parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the eastern Canadian Arctic. Nowhere in the Arctic had a top three coldest March
Figure 2 shows the time series of March temperatures for the Arctic over the past 75 years. March 2024 was unremarkable for the early 21st century and close to the long term trend average. However, it was still significantly warmer than any March was in the 40 years 1950 to 1989.
Arctic Sea Ice
Figure 3 shows the March average sea ice extent around the Arctic. The monthly average in National Snow and Ice Data Center analysis was the highest since 2013, with only the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Barents Sea decidedly below the 1981-2010 median. NSIDC’s detailed analysis of March 2024 sea ice is available here.
While extent is higher than in recent years, modeled sea ice volume remains well below that of the past several years, e.g. the Danish Meteorological Institute’s sea ice thickness and volume estimates, available here.
Alaska and Vicinity
For much of Alaska and vicinity, there were fairly dramatic temperature variations during March that in many areas came close to balancing out. For example, the North Slope had the coldest first half of March in more than a decade, but much milder weather the second half the month resulted in monthly average temperature close to the modern era normal.
Based on ERA5 reanalysis, the Alaska average temperature in March was 2.0°F (1.1°C) above the 1991-2020 average and very close to that of March 2023. For the Yukon Territory, this was the 17th warmest March since 1950 and was significantly warmer than 2023.
Figure 5 shows the March precipitation as a percent of average. Western Alaska in March was again much wetter than normal: in some places this was the sixth March in the past seven years with significantly above normal.
On the flip side, central and southern Southeast was significantly drier than normal, as was a small area in the central Interior and eastern North Slope. In general these departures from normal were not extreme, though some areas in eastern British Columbia did have a “top three” driest March.
March average snowpack (snow water equivalent) was near to above normal almost everywhere in mainland Alaska, the northern Yukon Territory and the northwest Northwest Territories, as seen in Fig. 6.
In contrast, central and southern Southeast Alaska and large parts of northwest Canada saw well below normal snowpack. Especially in northeast British Columbia, southeast Yukon Territory and western Northwest Territories this raises the risk of an early start to wildfire season.